BTC Holds Above Support but Faces $109k Resistance
BTC remains above its prior resistance level, closing with daily volume slightly above the yellow moving average—a positive signal. However, the $109k zone presents the next critical hurdle, combining TBO resistance and horizontal price resistance. If BTC respects this level without breaking through, a retracement to $98k is likely in the coming weeks.
🔍 Key Insight: The current structure resembles a bull flag, historically a precursor to bullish outcomes despite short-term consolidation.
Flat Trend Signals Choppy Conditions Ahead
While BTC maintains a "strong bullish" status above the daily TBO Cloud, the flat TBO Slow line indicates choppy conditions rather than sustained momentum. ETH mirrors this stagnation, trapped within its daily TBO Cloud with weak volume and minimal upward movement.
👉 Summer Crypto Trend: Flat trends align with typical summer volatility, urging traders to temper expectations for sharp rallies.
Stablecoin Dominance Drops as BTC.D Climbs Again
Stablecoin dominance continues declining—a usually bullish signal for altcoins. Yet, BTC dominance (BTC.D) rises toward 66%, with its weekly RSI above 70. The next major resistance for BTC.D lies at 70%, suggesting altcoins may underperform until BTC.D reverses.
✅ Watch For: A close long on BTC.D followed by a drop below the daily Cloud to confirm an altcoin rally.
No Change Yet for ALT Dominance Charts
Top 10 Dominance, OTHERS Dominance, and ETH.D charts remain bearish despite minor rebounds. The TOTAL crypto market cap may close above its daily Cloud, but a BTC rejection at $109k could drag it down again. BVOL7D declines toward its bounce zone, losing reliability since May.
📉 Market Sentiment: ALT strength hinges on BTC breaking resistance or dominance metrics reversing.
DXY Breakdown Supports Risk-On Rally in TradFi
The DXY’s lower low, with RSI below 25, signals bullish potential for risk assets. Equities (S&P, NDX, FANG) inch higher, while NVDA prints a TBO breakout. Falling VIX and WTI prices reflect reduced geopolitical fear. Gold re-enters the TBO Cloud, shifting to bearish consolidation.
🌍 Global Context: Asian markets rally, and PAXG/BTC lacks fresh breakdowns—no clear BTC outperformance yet.
ALTs Struggle to Regain Strength
Most altcoins fail to break into daily TBO Clouds, with APT down 68% from December highs. July’s median 7% return offers hope, but BTC’s summer choppiness may pressure low-cap ALTs further.
💡 Historical Note: August showed strength in 2017/2021 cycles, hinting at potential bounce opportunities.
Final Thoughts: DCA and Conservatism for Summer
Strategy:
- DCA through volatility.
- Trade conservatively; expect higher prices later in 2025.
- Monitor BTC’s $109k resistance for breakout/rejection signals.
🚀 Macro Outlook: BTC’s bullish trend persists, but short-term caution is advised.
FAQ
Q: Why is BTC’s $109k resistance significant?
A: It combines TBO and horizontal resistance—a breakout could accelerate upward momentum, while rejection may trigger a retracement.
Q: When might altcoins rebound?
A: Once BTC.D reverses (closes long and drops below daily Cloud), ALTs could regain strength.
Q: Is summer typically weak for crypto?
A: Yes, choppy trends are common, but historical cycles show August strength in bull markets.
👉 Explore advanced trading strategies for navigating crypto volatility.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research before trading.
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