Have you ever searched for the "holy grail" of trading strategies like Berry Uncle? When YouTubers and bloggers present high-win-rate, high-return strategies, do you share my curiosity—and skepticism—especially without coding skills for backtesting or time for manual verification?
Key questions arise:
- Was the manual verification truly done by pulling up historical candlesticks?
- Or was it merely retroactively fitting the strategy to past data?
After testing several strategies with real money, I remain unconvinced. Special thanks to community member Xiao Maomao for coding TradingView’s backtest feature!
Testing the "ADX Ultimate Strategy" from Speculative Lab
👉 Watch the original video: "83% Win Rate, 935% Return—ADX’s Strongest Trading Strategy"
Strategy Overview:
- Assets: Bitcoin (BTC) 1-hour chart
- Period: January 8, 2020 – July 1, 2022 (905 trading days, 100 trades)
Indicators:
- Stochastic RSI (default settings)
- EMA 200
- ADX (only ADX line, threshold: 50)
- ATR 8 (1.5x multiplier)
Long Conditions:
- Price above EMA 200
- Stochastic RSI ≤ 20 (oversold) + golden cross
- ADX > 50 (strong trend)
Short Conditions:
- Price below EMA 200
- Stochastic RSI ≥ 80 (overbought) + death cross
- ADX > 50
Claimed Results:
- 83% win rate (1:1 risk-reward)
- 935.12% return (method unclear; taken as reference)
Berry Uncle’s Backtest Results
2022 Bear Market (Jan 1 – Aug 9)
BTC: 28 trades, 1:1 risk-reward
- Win Rate: 64%
- Short Trades: 81.25% win rate
- Long Trades: 41.67% win rate
- Hypothetical Profit: 73.68U (14.7% net return on 500U capital, 10x leverage)
2021 Bull Market
BTC: 56.25% win rate (still profitable)
- Long/Short win rates nearly equal (~55-58%)
Combined 2021–2022 Data:
- 60 trades, 36 wins (60% win rate vs. claimed 83%)
Ethereum (ETH) Performance
2022 Bear Market
32 trades, 78% win rate
- Long Trades: 88.89% win rate
- Short Trades: 73.91% win rate
- Hypothetical Profit: 247.41U (49.5% net return)
2021 Bull Market
56.25% win rate (profitable)
- Longs: 65% win rate
- Shorts: 47.83% win rate
2021–2022 Total:
- 75 trades, 49 wins (65.33% win rate) → Outperforms BTC!
Optimizations & Insights
Timeframe Matters:
- BTC’s 4H chart showed 71.47% win rate (fewer trades but larger captures).
ATR Adjustment:
Increasing ATR multiplier to 2 boosted win rates:
- BTC: 73.08% (2022)
- ETH: 84.38% (2022)
Alternative Approach:
- Adding OBV (On-Balance Volume) as per Lao Mao’s ADX Strategy:
👉 Video: "DMI Trend Indicator for Mid/Long-Term Trading"
- Adding OBV (On-Balance Volume) as per Lao Mao’s ADX Strategy:
FAQs
Q: Is this strategy reliable for altcoins?
A: ETH’s higher win rate suggests adaptability, but test per asset.
Q: Why the discrepancy vs. original claims?
A: Execution variables (slippage, fees) and time-period selection impact results.
Q: How to improve win rates further?
A: Combine with volume indicators (e.g., OBV) or adjust ATR multipliers.
Final Thoughts
- Pros: Captures large trends; ETH-friendly.
- Cons: Low trade frequency (~1-2 signals/week).
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Interested in technical analysis, quant trading, or copy-trading?
Disclaimer: Past performance ≠ future results. Always test strategies with small capital first.