Solana's native token SOL has experienced a significant price drop today, raising questions about its potential to rebound toward the mid-term target of $190. Despite a 10% decline between October 1 and October 9, SOL is struggling to hold the $140 support level. While short-term sentiment appears bearish, SOL's 30-day performance aligns closely with the broader altcoin market, which saw a modest 4% uptrend. To assess its future trajectory, we analyze derivatives positions, competitive benchmarks, trading volume, and deposit metrics—key indicators that could signal a potential rally toward $190.
On-Chain Metrics Fail to Provide Clear SOL Price Direction
Although increased network usage doesn’t guarantee price appreciation, SOL’s value is partly driven by adoption expectations. For instance, new DApp launches often trigger trader accumulation of SOL for airdrops and incentives.
Trading Volume and Competitive Landscape
- SOL’s daily trading volume dropped 33% from $1.8B in late July to $1.2B.
- Ethereum saw a milder 7% decline (from $1.5B to $1.4B).
- BNB Chain outperformed with a 48% volume surge ($485M → $720M).
TVL and DApp Activity
Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) grew 5% to 37.7M SOL (vs. Ethereum’s 2% drop and BNB Chain’s 6% decline). Key DApps like Raydium (+35% volume) and Jupiter (+17% volume) drove this resilience. Sanctum’s TVL also surged 29% to $962M, underscoring robust network activity despite lower overall transactions.
Derivatives Traders Show Renewed Confidence in SOL
SOL futures reflect shifting risk appetite:
- Funding rates briefly turned negative on October 8 but rebounded to neutral (0.01% per 8 hours, or 0.9% monthly) by October 9.
- This suggests cautious optimism among traders, though insufficient data supports an imminent $190 rebound.
FAQs
Q: Can SOL recover to $190 soon?
A: Current metrics lack strong bullish signals, but DApp growth and neutral funding rates hint at stabilization.
Q: How does Solana’s TVL compare to Ethereum?
A: Solana’s TVL grew 5% recently, while Ethereum’s declined 2%—highlighting SOL’s relative strength.
Q: What’s driving SOL’s price drop?
A: Reduced trading volume and mixed derivatives sentiment contribute, but DApp inflows mitigate downside pressure.
👉 Explore Solana’s latest metrics for real-time insights.
Disclaimer: This analysis excludes financial advice. Always conduct independent research.
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