Will Three Blockchains Emerge After the Hard Fork? The Answer Awaits Until the 15th
Node Count Comparison
According to the latest data from Bitcoin network analytics provider Coin Dance, BCH ABC nodes outnumber BCH SV by 6:1. BCH ABC enjoys support from major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and BitPay, while BCH SV is backed by Coingeek, the largest BCH mining pool.
The keyword here is "mining pool." Individual miners can freely mine any coin their hardware allows, and participation in specific pools remains voluntary with potential fluctuations.
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While launching Bitcoin network nodes has relatively low barriers, future Bitcoin Cash node operation costs may increase due to greater storage demands. However, most blocks in the current BCH blockchain remain well below their 32MB capacity limit.
Notably, BCH SV plans to immediately increase block size to 128MB post-fork. Technically, individual users could launch dozens of nodes for a few hundred dollars using services like Digital Ocean or Linode. Ultimately, node count proves less significant than hash power in Proof-of-Work economies—though final hash power allegiance remains uncertain pre-fork.
Hash Power Faceoff
At publication time, Coingeek and SVPool collectively mined most BCH blocks, with network data suggesting majority hash power favors BCH SV. Coin Dance reports at least 63% hash rate supports SV versus ABC's 18%.
Publicly, these mining pools support BCH SV:
- CoinGeek
- SVPool
- BMG Pool
- Okminer
- Mempool
Together they control approximately 73% of network hash rate.
However, hash power alone doesn't guarantee success if exchanges reject the token. BCH SV's market viability directly ties to mining economics—if SV tokens trade at one-third ABC's value, miners can't sustain operations without dramatic price surges across all BCH variants.
Pre-Fork Market Prices
On P2PB2B's pre-fork exchange:
- BCHABC: $414
- BCHSV: $113
Combined value trails BCH by $2, likely due to cautious pre-launch trading.
👉 Understand cryptocurrency valuation during forks
Craig Wright's Ultimatum
The fork debate turned personal as key proponents "Bitcoin Jesus" (Roger Ver) and Craig Wright escalated tensions. Wright's email accused Ver of "hating Bitcoin" and labeled him an "enemy," concluding with:
"Mark my words. When you're angry and frustrated, you'll know I was right."
Wright threatened that maintaining 51%+ hash power would allow SV miners to kill BCH ABC by mining empty blocks post-fork.
However, Bitcoin Unlimited's Chief Scientist Peter Rizun dismissed this on November 5:
"One chain might mine malicious blocks. The SV camp claims they'll attack ABC if ABC rules activate. I believe this is bluster—they lack technical capacity for such attacks. If attempted, it could damage BCH's progress."
Mining Hardware Considerations
An often-overlooked factor with SHA256 Bitcoin forks: globally distributed obsolete Bitcoin mining hardware becomes profitable again on chains with lower hash difficulty. While uncompetitive on Bitcoin's main chain, these older units find new life on forks like the upcoming BCH splits.
Bitcoin Unlimited—operating nearly 800 nodes (34.86% share)—permits both ABC and SV rules while overwhelmingly supporting BCH's status quo.
FAQ
Q: Which BCH fork has more institutional support?
A: BCH ABC leads in exchange support (Binance, Coinbase) while BCH SV dominates mining pool backing.
Q: Can hash power alone determine fork success?
A: No—exchange adoption, developer activity, and market demand are equally crucial.
Q: Why might three blockchains emerge?
A: If neither ABC nor SV achieves clear dominance, Bitcoin Unlimited's neutral nodes could sustain a third chain.
Q: How does block size affect the forks?
A: BCH SV's 128MB blocks aim for scalability but risk centralization, while ABC maintains 32MB for broader node participation.
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Disclaimer: All content represents author perspectives only, not investment advice.