A recent study by digital payment giant Visa, cited by Bloomberg, reveals that over 90% of stablecoin transactions aren’t initiated by real users. This casts doubt on claims that stablecoins are becoming mainstream payment instruments.
The Contradiction in Stablecoin Adoption
While proponents argue that stablecoins like USDT facilitate cross-border payments and serve as dollar alternatives in emerging markets (Africa, Latin America, and South Asia), Visa’s data tells a different story. Key findings:
- Only $149 billion** of April’s **$2.2 trillion stablecoin volume came from "organic payments" by real users.
- The rest were driven by bots, arbitrageurs, or inflated by double-counting (e.g., DEX swaps counting both input and output tokens).
👉 Why stablecoins struggle with real-world adoption
Industry Optimism vs. Reality
Major fintech players remain bullish:
- PayPal launched its PYUSD stablecoin for low-cost transfers.
- Stripe now allows merchants to accept stablecoin payments.
- Bernstein analysts predict stablecoin market cap could hit $2.8 trillion by 2028 (18x current value).
Yet, practical hurdles persist:
"Stablecoins are still in their infancy as payment tools. Long-term potential exists, but short-term focus must be on improving existing mechanisms."
— Pranav Sood, Airwallex EMEA MD
The Measurement Challenge
Tracking "real" crypto activity is notoriously difficult:
- Glassnode estimated only $875 billion** of the 2021 bull market’s **$3 trillion crypto valuation was organic.
Stripe’s John Collison calls stablecoins a "technical improvement," but adoption lags due to:
- Poor user experience.
- Competition from legacy systems (e.g., checks still dominate 40–60% of U.S. B2B payments).
👉 How Visa’s findings impact crypto’s future
FAQ: Stablecoin Viability
Q: Can stablecoins replace traditional payments?
A: Not yet. Scalability exists, but organic usage remains low.
Q: Why is transaction volume misleading?
A: DEX trades and arbitrage inflate totals—Visa filters these to isolate genuine payments.
Q: Which stablecoin leads in real-world use?
A: USDT on TRON dominates emerging markets due to low fees, but Visa’s data questions its "daily payment" narrative.
Q: Will fintech integrations boost adoption?
A: PayPal/Stripe’s moves are steps forward, but user education and regulatory clarity are critical.